After a wave of rapid intensification, Typhoon Duxuri was sweeping through the waters of the northeastern Philippines at 11 a.m. EDT Monday as a Category 4 equivalent. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Duxuri’s highest sustained winds for one minute were 140 mph, giving the typhoon strength as a Category 4 hurricane. Duxuri is the second-strongest typhoon so far this year, behind only Category 5 Mawar, which passed near Guam and the Philippines in late May without making direct landfall. Doksuri is a name contributed by South Korea and means “eagle”. In the Philippines, which for decades has used a naming system set apart from the rest of the Pacific Northwest, Doksuri is called Egay.
After a slow westward journey for several days, Doksuri drifted to the northwest while gaining strength on Sunday. This general northwestward movement may be enough to prevent Duxuri from striking the main island of Luzon in the Philippines head-on, although the eye of the storm may pass over the small Babuyan Island (population 2,000) to the north of Luzon. However, the weaker left (southwest) side of the storm will move across northern parts of Luzon, bringing heavy rains, possibly damaging winds, and coastal flooding.
Doksuri should remain a strong typhoon over open waters northeastern Philippines, where it will depend on warm sea surface temperatures of 29-30°C (84-86°F) as well as a region of deeper enhanced heat content. Upper-level wind shear should remain light to moderate (5-15 knots), and the hurricane’s large envelope of rich atmospheric moisture will help insulate it from any rapid weakening. It seems likely that Doksuri will pass just south of Taiwan on Wednesday, but there is still a wide degree of spread in the path between models, including European models and GFS models and their combinations (see Figs 1 and 2). Only a slight angle to the right would bring Doksuri Center to Taiwan.
Even without landfall, heavy rain, thunderstorms, and gusty winds on the typhoon’s stronger right side could sweep across the southern and western parts of Taiwan. These rains could actually be a boon for the drought-stricken nation, which has limited water storage capacity and experienced no hurricane fall during 2020-2022, a period dominated by La Niña. As reported by NPR, rice farmers in southern Taiwan have been banned from planting every spring from 2021 through 2023 so that water is available to semiconductor plants. Taiwan makes the bulk of the semiconductor chips in the entire world.
Duxuri is expected to accelerate northwestward on Wednesday and Thursday, likely to reach the coast of southeast China by late Thursday or Friday. It is too early to predict the exact location or strength of this landing with any confidence. At this point, Doxori’s strength will largely depend on how much it interacts with the Philippines and Taiwan, and this interaction is likely to cause significant weakening.
A disturbance of 95 liters approaching the Lesser Antilles is not expected to develop
After losing a battle with dry air, Tropical Disturbance 95L, located just a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands Monday afternoon, has seen its chances of development wane over the past few days. Satellite imagery Monday afternoon showed Heavy 95 Thunderstorm activity had increased since Sunday, but the system was no longer rotating as much. Conditions were marginally favorable for development, with moderate wind shear of 10–20 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 29 °C (84 °F).
forecast for 95 liters
95L is expected to move west at 15-20 mph this week and bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles starting Monday evening. Heavy wind shear of 20-25 knots Tuesday-Thursday should keep any 95L slow from developing, and the system has very little model support to develop. At Monday’s 2 p.m. EDT Tropical Weather Forecast, the National Hurricane Center gave 95 two-day and seven-day developing odds of 20%. Hurricane Hunters are on standby to investigate 95L on Wednesday afternoon when it is expected to be in the Central Caribbean.
At second look Monday afternoon, the center also identified an area of potential interest east of the Bahamas, giving it a 20% chance of development in a three- to seven-day window. Satellite imagery Monday afternoon showed that the system had a fair amount of spin, but little thunderstorm activity. There is some modest support in model groups, particularly European, for a weak system to develop and approach the southeast coast of the US (see right graph in the tweet below) a few days from now.
New tropical wave over Africa to watch
A tropical wave in far west Africa on Monday afternoon is expected to move off the coast by Tuesday, then speed west-west-northwest across the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the week. By Monday, July 31, the wave is expected to be near the Leeward Islands, and there is some support for development at that time from GFS Model and members of its group. This wave from the National Hurricane Center has not yet been mentioned in the tropical weather forecast, but it will likely be mentioned later this week.
Don finally dies
Long-lived Hurricane Don finally passed away on the morning of Monday, July 24, over the frigid waters east of Newfoundland, Canada. Don became the first tornado of the season on Saturday, July 22, about three weeks before the usual appearance of the first tornado of the season: August 11. Typhoon Don lasted a total of nine days after forming as a subtropical cyclone on July 14. According to the National Hurricane Center, Don is the fifth-longest scoring system in the month of July, behind 2005’s Emily, thanks primarily to a poor 1991 season. 8.8 average.
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